JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The good news is that the regulated blackouts in Jakarta and its surroundings have been handled earlier than the government's schedule, which formerly targetted on December 19. But beyond Java island, the blackouts persist. The electricity supply is still insufficient.

The point is that electricity, which is a basic need for the public, is still a big concern. "A number of projects from the 10,000 megawatt project package won't be operational this year," said the Managing Director of the State-owned Electric Company (PT PLN), Fahmi Mochtar, at the Commission XI of the House of Representatives, last week.

Fahmi said that none of the 25 power plant projects outside Java will have been operational by the end of 2009. Those projects, which are included in the 10,000 MW project package, are witheld due to the slow initial construction which was supposed to start in 2006 but was only effective around 2008.

"Outside Java there are 25 locations. They're spread in Aceh, North Sumatera, Riau Islands, West Sumatera, Lampung, and South Kalimantan (Borneo). We predict that they will only be operational in 2010 to generate 121 MW, and in 2011 for 1,500 MW."

On the other hand, some areas are already suffering electricity shortages during peak usage periods. In some areas, blackouts are prone because of the barely adequate electricity supply. Any disturbance on the power generator would mean an inevitable blackout.

The chronic shortage on electricity is already happening in areas like South Sumatera and Barito, South Kalimantan, which is known for its coal mining, and coal in turn is the fuel for many power plants in this country. In South and Southeast Sumatera for instance, the electricity shortage is up to 178,7 MW. In Barito it's up to 59,17 MW, Palu 10 MW, Riau Islands 4,3 MW, Sorong 1,15 MW, Kendari 3,5 MW, and Kupang 1,5 MW.

"For Java and Bali, this December we expect the Banten Labuan steam-power plant to operate and generate 900 MW, and the Rembang power-plant 300 MW. Next, in 2010 we will add 3,200 MW, and in 2011 1,970 MW."

For Jakarta and its surroundings, the corporate communications manager of PT PLN, Ario Subijoko, Sunday, stated that the transformator repair for Cawang main power-plant, East Jakarta, is estimated to be finished by the end of next week. This is earlier than the government's first schedule for December 19.

"If we don't suffer weather disturbances, especially from the rain, the repair of the main power-plant in Cawang can be finished earlier than scheduled." Based on the last review, the repair on the Cawang power-plant is 96 percent done.

Currently all devices have been set. So the repair process is at the last stage, which is testing  the power load and the devices to ensure operations and safety. "The device testing will require a few days."

Out-dated Infrastructure

However, tidyin the electricity system in Jakarta and its surrounding would take a long time. "The problem is not with the capacity of the generators, but with the transmission and the main power-plant. Currently the load on most main power-plant is up to 90 percent or more so it can't be redirected if one of the transformators is having problems," said Subijoko.

The transmission and main power-plant issues can be the cause of another worry. The electricity in Java and Bali could suffer regulated blackouts again if there is damage like on the main transformators of Cawang and Kembangan power plants, West Jakarta, late last September.

Observer of the electricity issue from Gadjah Mada University, Tumiran, asks the government to tidy the national electricity distribution infrastructure and lines immediately to ensure power availability. The member of the National Energy Board stressed that the old infrastructure and insufficient transmission lines are the main cause of the current electricity crisis.

"Actually the electricity crisis in Java and Bali aren't because of insufficient supply, but more because of the out-dated devices that are prone to damages but not having any back-up," said Tumiran, recently in Yogyakarta.

According to Tumiran, the government needs to rejuvenate the old devices and add more back-ups in case the main device is broken. The gorvernment also needs to add the transmission lines aside from building new generators.

The current transmission line is too small and inefficient. "Don't just build new power plants. New power plants without proper distribution lines would be useles."

According to Emy Perdanahari, director of electricity and energy usage from the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources, her department aims at increasing electricity generators' capacity to 7,819 MW by 2010, and by 2014 to a total of 30,613 MW. There will also be additional transmission network along approximately 8,183 circuit mile by 2010 and a total of 17,261 circuit mile by 2014. Another effort is the interconnection of the distribution system for Sumatera island through a network of 275 kilo Volts by 2010, and an additional 17,820 mega Volt Ampere main power plant by 2010.

Emy stated that based on the national electricity general plan for 2008-2027, the investment requirement for generators, transmission network, main power-plant and its distribution line, is up to 208.7 billion USD. So the investment requirement per year is around Rp. 100 trillion. "The government can only fund 10-20 percent of this requirement."

Fahmi concurred, that the funding source for transmission construction (to connect between the generator in the 10,000 MW project with the consumers) is still undetermined. Currently the transmission construction project requires funding as much as 933 million USD or approximately Rp. 9.33 trillion. PT PLN has only secured funding commitments as much as 727 million USD or around Rp. 7.27 trillion. Consequently, there is still a shortage of 206 million USD or around Rp. 2.06 trillion whose funding source remains undetermined.

"We must work out the shortage from issuing obligations. As for the fund requirement in rupiah which amounts to Rp. 13.1 trillion, we have gained Rp. 4.9 trillion. The rest has been compensated by obligations worth Rp. 5.2 trillion."

For the electric generator's project funding alone, 4.9 billion USD is needed. So far PT PLN has fulfilled 4.47 billion USD. The remaining 458 million USD is still processed and is estimated to be fulfilled by December 2009.

"As for the funding in rupiah, the requirement is as much as Rp. 19.1 trillion, and Rp 18.9 trillion has been signed. The rest is still under negotiation through PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia."

No Investment

These considerable figures signify that the electricity transmission repairs won't be immediate. The electricity crisis may repeat. If so, new investments cannot be relied on, especially on areas that are still short on electricity. The same fate occurs on areas still on regulated blackouts.

It's an absolute fact that power is needed for investments, which is to achieve the 7 percent economic growth targeted by the government. Investment, especially on the industrial sector that absorbs high man power, is needed to create more job opportunities, and to suppress the unemployment rate by 9.25 million people, and also to add the working force by 2.26 million per year.

"Our industry will be hard pressed in competition. Manufacturing is weakening," said economist Faisal Basri regarding the electricity shortage causing regulated blackouts.

According to Faisal, on the third quarter of 2009 the sector grew 1.3 percent, which is lower compared to the previous two quarters that were as low as 1.5 percent already. The electricity supply is only one problem threatening the manufacturing industry, aside from man power and cost. "Ironically, the ones suffering the most are the small and medium scale businesses becase power generators are too expensive for them," said Faisal.

Sandiaga S. Uno, the Deputy Chairman of the Indonesian Chambers of Commerce (Kadin) and Industry for micro, small and medium business (UMKM), said "For UMKM, power is like blood. Without blood UMKM would be helpless."

Kadin estimates that the loss suffered by UMKM amounts to Rp. 50,000 per month due to blackouts. So, based on the calculation of BPS-Statistics Indonesia, there are 50 million units of UMKM, so the total loss amounts to Rp. 2.5 trillion per month.

"The target income will also decline by 20-25 percent. We're sure now there is a risk of decline against the achievement of the economic growth target for 2009 and 2010. This is regretable, since we have a good momentum in the international market," said Sandiaga.

Jabar Dedy Wijaya, the chairman of the Indonesian Businessman Association, in Bandung, said that the regulated blackouts by PT PLN is a burden on businesses. "Especially if the blackout happens without prior notice."

According to Dedy, the large capacity machines, such as those in textile and garment industries require a large amount of power. Though generators could be used, the operational cost would sky-rocket.

Now businessmen are again asked to sacrifice by diverting working time. This is to optimize the power load by diverting the working time of industries around Java and Bali. In the joint ministerial decree of five ministers, the industrial and commercial businesses are asked to participate in diverting their working times to Saturdays and Sundays. (EVY/GRE/ABK/OSA/HAR/PPG/C17-09)